Secure ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)

Test-ban treaty faces uphill climb to ratification

Updated: Tuesday, December 15th, 2009 | By Louis Jacobson

During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama promised to seek ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which bans test explosions of nuclear weapons.

Obama noted that the United States has kept to a moratorium on nuclear testing since the presidency of George H.W. Bush in 1992. The United States signed the treaty in 1996, but Senate ratification failed in 1999 and has not been taken up in the chamber since.

"Since the U.S. Senate last considered the treaty in 1999, significant progress has been made in our verification capability to detect nuclear explosions, even at extremely low yields, and to ensure confidence in the reliability of our nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing," Obama said during the campaign.

Leonor Tomero, director of nuclear non-proliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and the Council for a Livable World, said that administration officials have been reaching out to the Senate on CTBT ratification. For the first time since 1999, the United States sent a delegation to the biennial Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. In addition, the administration reaffirmed its support for ratification when Obama spoke to the United Nations Security Council in September, and also during Obama's visits with the leaders of China, Japan and India in November.

Still, beyond rhetoric, the effort faces a long road. Not only does ratification of a treaty require a two-thirds Senate majority -- which would require the support of more than a half-dozen Republicans, who have shown little interest in cooperating with Obama on key issues -- but most experts predict that a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty now being negotiated with Russia will be the first arms-control treaty to hit the Senate.

This means that the earliest the Senate might get to the CTBT would be summer or fall of next year, Tomero said -- if there are no delays with the START negoatiations and if the Senate doesn't get distracted by other agenda items.

The Senate may end up ratifying the treaty one day, but because of the likely delay in even taking it up, we're calling the effort Stalled.

Sources: The White House, " Statement by the Press Secretary on the U.S. delegation to the Conference on Facilitating the Entry into Force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty ," Sept. 15, 2009

The White House, " U.S. China Joint Statement ," Nov. 13, 2009

The White House, " United States-Japan Joint Statement Toward a World Without Nuclear Weapons ," Nov. 13, 2009

The White House, " Joint Statement Between Prime Minister Dr. Singh and President Obama ," Nov. 24, 2009

The White House, " Remarks by the President at the United Nations Security Council Summit on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Disarmament ," Sept. 24, 2009

E-mail interview with Leonor Tomero, director of nuclear non-proliferation at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and the Council for a Livable World, Dec. 12, 2009