Stand up for the facts!
Our only agenda is to publish the truth so you can be an informed participant in democracy.
We need your help.
I would like to contribute
Rep. Steve King says Maxine Waters wins election with fewer votes because of lower turnout
Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, is one of the most outspoken opponents of illegal immigration in Congress. On May 22, 2014, during a speech on the House floor, he argued that proposals to overhaul immigration laws are a Trojan horse for Republicans, since allowing illegal immigrants a path to citizenship will boost the number of Democratic voters and eventually doom the GOP.
This is not the first time King has made this argument. Just over a year ago, King said that Ronald Reagan was wrong to have signed an "amnesty" law in 1986 that "gave Barack Obama about 15 million additional Hispanic votes in 2012." We found King’s math faulty and rated the claim False.
This time, King sought to illustrate what’s at stake electorally by discussing how large immigrant populations can affect congressional elections. He said that while congressional districts are drawn to be roughly equal in population, the number of immigrants -- legal and illegal -- varies widely from district to district.
"If you would go to a district in California like Maxine Waters' district, she only needs about 40,000 to 50,000 votes in her district to get re-elected to the United States Congress," King said. "If you go to my district, it is well over 120,000 votes for me to be re-elected to the United States Congress. ... I have a very, very high percentage of real American citizens that do vote in my district; she has a lower percentage. And I have a higher turnout of people who are responsible enough to vote; she has a lower percentage."
King continued, "Democrats are happy enough to see the country filling up with people that they get to count when they do a district, because they get a Democrat district that is another vote here in the House of Representatives, Mr. Speaker. They want to turn this country into a single-party country."
Sign up for PolitiFact texts
We thought we’d check whether King, a Republican from northwestern Iowa, was right when he said that Waters, a Democrat who represents a Los Angeles-area district, typically wins her seat in Congress with fewer votes than he does because of lower turnout and a higher illegal immigrant population.
First, some background on how congressional districts are drawn. Each state is guaranteed at least one U.S. House seat, and the remainder of the chamber's 435 seats gets divvied up based on the states' total resident population. This means that both citizens and noncitizens are counted by the Census, even though only citizens can vote. This is one of the major reasons why the number of voters can vary from district to district.
To check King’s statement, we took a deep dive into election returns for both districts. As we’ll see, King makes some valid points but ignores a few critical factors.
First, let’s look at the election results for both lawmakers going back to 2002.
The following table includes the votes won by either King or Waters, the number of votes won by the runner-up, the total votes cast for all candidates in the general election, and one-half the total votes cast.
What’s important to note here is that the votes "needed" to win can either be characterized as one vote more than the runner-up won, or one more vote than half of all votes cast. Remember that King said he needed 120,000 votes to win and Waters needed only 40,000 to 50,000 to win. As you’ll see, King is only partially correct.
Year
Winner’s votes
Runner-up’s votes
Total votes
Half of total votes
113,257
68,853
182,237
91,119
168,583
97,597
266,341
133,171
105,580
64,181
180,464
90,232
159,430
99,601
266,617
133,309
128,363
63,160
195,239
97,620
200,063
169,470
377,883
188,942
72,401
18,094
93,407
46,704
125,949
23,591
156,407
78,204
82,498
Featured Fact-check
8,343
98,506
49,253
150,778
24,169
182,579
91,290
98,131
25,561
123,694
61,847
143,123
57,771
200,894
100,447
This table shows a big difference in turnout between presidential and non-presidential years. The only years in which half the vote total in Waters’ district is about "40,000 to 50,000" (as King put it) are midterm elections. In presidential years, winning half the votes in Waters’ district takes much more than that. The same pattern holds for King -- he has to win "well over 120,000 votes" only in presidential years and can get by with nearly 30,000 less than that in midterm elections.
So right off the bat, King is cherry picking the elections he’s talking about -- midterm elections for Waters, presidential elections for himself.
That said, King has a point that voting totals are consistently higher in his district than in Waters', even if the differences aren’t quite as dramatic as he indicates. According to experts, there are a few reasons for this -- some of which King cited, some of which he didn’t.
• King’s district is home to more people than Waters’ district. While in theory congressional districts across the country are supposed to be roughly equal, in practice they tend to vary somewhat.
The voting-age population in Waters’ district, which counts just adults and not children, is 517,004, compared to 584,777 in King’s, according to U.S. Census Bureau surveys cited by George Mason University political scientist Michael McDonald. That’s almost 68,000 more voting-age residents for King right off the bat.
• Waters has more noncitizens in her district.
King has a point that Waters represents more noncitizens, who can’t vote. Waters’ district has 118,576 noncitizens, compared to 20,062 in King’s district. That’s enough of a difference to make a significant dent in the pool of potential voters.
• Waters’ district has a disproportionate share of Latinos and Asian-Americans, who tend to vote with less frequency.
Even the citizens in Waters’ district who are legal voters are less likely to turn out to vote, which means Waters would need fewer votes to win. So on this point, King is on to something.
Almost half of the residents in Waters’ district are of Hispanic origin, and another 13 percent are Asian-American. Nationally, Census Bureau data for 2012 shows that Hispanic turnout was 51.6 percent and Asian-American turnout was 47.3 percent -- both lower than non-Hispanic white turnout (64.1 percent) and African-American turnout (66.2 percent). King has far fewer Hispanics and Asians in his district.
• During presidential years, Iowa is a much more competitive state than California, which draws Iowa voters to the polls.
No Republican presidential candidate has made a serious play for California in a generation, but Iowa is consistently an up-for-grabs state in the quadrennial presidential showdown. Presidential voter-mobilization efforts by the parties tend to bolster turnout on the margins in Iowa, and the lack of it depresses turnout in California.
• King’s district is considerably more competitive electorally than Waters’ is.
In the 2012 election, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan handicapping service, rated King’s district a +5 Republican district, meaning that the GOP presidential candidate performed 9 points better in the district than he did in the nation as a whole. While that doesn’t exactly make King’s seat a toss-up district, it did make it much more competitive than Waters’, which was rated a +26 Democratic district.
Why does this matter? Three reasons. First, King is more apt to draw a credible challenger, and a credible challenger is more apt to draw votes, raising the threshold King needs to reach to win. Second, the minority party in King’s district, the Democratic Party, has more of a voter base that will vote for their party’s candidates up and down the ballot. This also raises the threshold King needs to win. Third, generally speaking, the more competitive a race it is, the more it energizes voters to come to the polls.
By contrast, the GOP is so weak in Waters’ district that only the most hopeless Republican candidates bother to run against a long-serving incumbent like Waters. This tends to depress the vote in her races: People are apt to think there’s not much of a reason for anyone to come out to the polls.
When we ran our assessment by King's office, spokeswoman Sarah Wells said the additional points we raised are all "viable reasons, but for our purposes we would say that they are factors that lead to lower turnout, rather than additional factors to accompany Mr. King's two points." That's a judgment call, and one we disagree with. We believe the array of factors calls into question King's decision to zero in on immigration in this comparison.
Our ruling
In a warning to Republicans about the risks of allowing illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, King said Waters wins election to Congress with fewer votes than he does because of ‘two things’ -- lower turnout and a higher immigrant population.
King is correct that both lower turnout rates and a higher population of immigrants who aren’t allowed to vote accounts for some of the difference in their respective vote totals. But he gets some of the key numbers wrong, cherry picks the type of election he’s talking about and ignores the role of the districts’ size, the level of presidential competitiveness and differences in the quality of the competition they face. We rate King’s claim Half True.
Our Sources
Steve King, House floor speech, May 22, 2014
Federal Election Commission, "Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012
Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2014 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 4, 2013
U.S. Census Bureau, "My Congressional District" (interactive table), accessed May 28, 2014
U.S. Census Bureau, "Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2012 - Detailed Tables," accessed May 28, 2014
U.S. Census Bureau, "Congressional Apportionment: Frequently Asked Questions," accessed May 29, 2014
Michael Barone et al, Almanac of American Politics 2012
Email interview with E. Scott Adler, political scientist at the University of Colorado, May 29, 2014
Email interview with Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, May 28, 2014
Email interview with Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, May 28, 2014
Email interview with Michael McDonald, George Mason University political scientist, May 28, 2014
Email interview with Sarah Wells, spokeswoman for Steve King, May 30, 2014
Browse the Truth-O-Meter
More by Louis Jacobson
Rep. Steve King says Maxine Waters wins election with fewer votes because of lower turnout
Support independent fact-checking.
Become a member!
In a world of wild talk and fake news, help us stand up for the facts.