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Nancy Badertscher
By Nancy Badertscher June 15, 2015

NOTE: This is the first in a series where we'll be bringing you fact-checks on the 2016 presidential hopefuls.

Jeb Bush is expected today to join an already long list of Republicans and Democrats hoping to be their party’s 2016 presidential nominee. He has an announcement scheduled this afternoon at a suburban campus of Miami Dade College.

At least a dozen Republicans and a handful of Democrats have either formally announced their candidacy or expressed interest in running to succeed Barack Obama. The best known on the Democratic side, of course, being Hillary Clinton, former first lady and former secretary of state.

 

Today we begin an occasional series of articles that will look at fact-checks PolitiFact has published on the major candidates.

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Next up: Hillary Clinton on June 22.

We have fact-checked 40 statement by Jeb Bush, including 10 that were rated True, 12 Mostly True, five Half True, two False, and one Pants on Fire.

 

See them all at http://www.politifact.com/personalities/jeb-bush/.

Here’s a sample.

 

Jeb Bush on Monday, Oct.. 27, 2014 in a fundraising letter

Among the developed nations, we are the least economically and socially mobile country in the world."

 

In a fundraising letter, Jeb Bush said "among the developed nations, we are the least economically and socially mobile country in the world."

His Foundation for Excellence in Education sent us a few stories backing up the claim on a broad level.

We found even more data suggesting that yes, America does lag behind most every developed country in terms of being able to move from the bottom rungs of the income ladder to the top.

Experts also told us it was a fair claim, although we must note there is some disagreement on how mobility is measured and minor differences among studies.

We rated the statement True.

 

Jeb Bush on Friday, June 14th, 2013 in a speech at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference "Immigrants are more fertile."

 

 

Speaking at the Faith and Freedom Coalition Conference in Washington, Jeb Bush made a pitch for immigration reform, saying America needs more new workers to help pay for retirees -- "to rebuild the demographic pyramid" as he put it.

"Immigrants are more fertile," Bush said. "And they love families and they have more intact families, and they bring a younger population. Immigrants create an engine of economic prosperity."

Fertility can mean the ability to have children. But it also can refer to the birth rate of a population, which is what Bush’s spokesperson said was the former governor’s intent.

On that front, there is no debate about the numbers. The Pew Research Center reported in 2012 that the birth rate among foreign-born women was nearly 50 percent higher than for U.S.-born women -- 87.8 births per 1,000 women compared with 58.9 births per 1,000 women of prime child bearing age (15-44).

However, the rates are converging, they vary widely among immigrant groups and over the years, the rates change.

Still, Bush’s words were on track.

We rated the statement Mostly True.

 


Jeb Bush on Wednesday, May 20th, 2015 in a roundtable in New Hampshire

"ISIS didn't exist when my brother was president. Al-Qaida in Iraq was wiped out when my brother was president."

 

Jeb Bush said that "ISIS didn't exist when my brother [George W. Bush] was President."

He also said: "Al-Qaida in Iraq was wiped out when my brother was president."

There are problems with both pieces of Bush’s claim. Yes, a group called ISIS didn’t exist while his brother was president, but the roots of the organization were indeed present and operating under a different banner.

As far as claiming al-Qaida was "wiped out," most experts consider that a stretch. The group’s power certainly diminished under President George W. Bush, but it wasn’t wiped out.

Jeb Bush’s statement contains an element of truth, but it ignores critical facts that would give a different impression.

We rated this claim Mostly False.

.   

Jeb Bush on Wednesday, November 27, 2013 in a tweet

"Why would our president close the embassy to the Vatican? Hopefully, it is not retribution for Catholic organizations opposing Obamacare."

 

PolitiFact gave Jeb Bush, who is a Catholic,a Pants on Fire for his tweet "Why would our president close the embassy to the Vatican? Hopefully, it is not retribution for Catholic organizations opposing Obamacare."

The embassy wasn’t closing. It was moving, and there were several reasons for it that had nothing to do with the federal health care law. Consolidating operations at one compound would improve security and save about $1.4 million a year, a State Department official told reporters.

The move had been in the works since George W. Bush -- Jeb Bush’s brother -- was president. Finally, we found no evidence to support the idea that the relocation was related to battles over Obamacare.

We rated the claim Pants on Fire!

 

 


 

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Our Sources

Foundation for Excellence in Education, fundraising letter from Jeb Bush, received Oct. 27, 2014

Institute for the Study of Labor, "American Exceptionalism in a New Light: A Comparison of Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in the Nordic Countries, the United Kingdom and the United States," January 2006

Institute for the Study of Labor, "Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility," March 2006

Brookings Institution, "Economic Mobility of Families Across Generations," November 2007

New York Times, "Harder for Americans to Rise From Lower Rungs," Jan. 4, 2012

New York Times, "The Great Gatsby Curve," Jan. 15, 2012

New York Times, "Equal Opportunity, Our National Myth," Feb. 16, 2013

National Review, "The Great Gatsby Curve: Not So Great After All," Aug. 21, 2013

Businessweek, "The Gatsby Curve: How Inequality Became a Household Word," Dec. 12, 2013

Pew Charitable Trusts, "Economic Mobility and the American Dream: Where Do We Stand in the Wake of the Great Recession," May 19, 2014

Pew Charitable Trusts, "Pew Finds Generation X Facing an Insecure Financial Future," Sept. 18, 2014

Interview with Jaryn Emhof, Foundation for Excellence in Education spokesperson, Nov. 4-5, 2014

Interview with Timothy Smeeding, University of Wisconsin economics professor, Nov. 1, 2014

Interview with Isabel Sawhill, Brookings Institution economist, Nov. 5, 2014

C-SPAN, Gov. Jeb Bush on immigrants, June 14, 2012

Associated Press, Jeb Bush: Immigrants ‘more fertile’ and create more businesses than native-born Americans, June 14, 2011

National Public Radio, Immigrants are more fertile, Jeb Bush says in reform speech, June 14, 2013

Twitter, Tweets on Bush, immigration and fertility

Email interview with Tom Smith, senior fellow, NORC, University of Chicago, June 18, 2013

Email interview with Emilio Parrado, professor of sociology, University of Pennsylvania, June 17, 2013

Email interview with Doug Massey, professor of sociology, Princeton University, June 17, 2013

Interview with Steven Camarota, director of research, Center for Immigration Studies, June 17, 2013

Pew Research Center, U.S. birth rate falls to a record low, decline is greatest among immigrants, November 29, 2012

U.S. Census, Selected Characteristics of native and foreign-born populations in the United States, 2011

National Health Statistics Report, Fertility of men and women aged 15-44 in the United States, April 12, 2012

National Center for Health Statistics, Births: Final data for 2010, August 28, 2012

Population Association of America, Fertility differentials across race-ethnicity and generational status: Incorporating non-Hispanic immigrants, April, 2013

Migration Policy Institute, Mexican and Central American immigrants in the United States, June 2011

Demographic Research, A crossover in Mexican and Mexican-American fertility rates, March 11, 2005

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Definition of fertility rate, May 25, 2012

The World Bank, Fertility rate, total, 2008-2012

Twitter, Former Gov. Jeb Bush, Nov. 27, 2013

U. S. Department of State and the Broadcasting Board of Governors Office of Inspector General, "Limited scope inspection of Embassy Vatican City, The Holy See," June 2008

U.S. Department of State, Conference call with senior state department official on the U.S. Embassy to the Vatican, Nov. 25, 2013

U.S. Department of State DipNote blog, "Just the facts: The future U.S. Embassy to the Holy See," Nov. 27, 2013

National Catholic Reporter, "Vatican embassy move draws fire from former US envoys," Nov. 20, 2013

Washington Times, "Obama’s call to close Vatican a ‘slap in the face,’ to Roman catholics," Nov. 26, 2013

Breitbart, "Obama admin moves Vatican embassy, citing security concerns," Nov. 25, 2013

Washington Post The Fact Checker, "The bogus claim that Obama is ‘closing’ the Vatican embassy," Dec. 4, 2013

CNN, "Vatican downplays controversy over U.S. embassy move," Nov. 27, 2013

Interview, Pooja Jhunjhunwala, spokeswoman  U.S. Department of State, Dec. 4, 2013

Interview, Stephen F. Schneck, Director, Institute for Policy Research & Catholic Studies The Catholic University of America, Dec. 4, 2013

Interview, Kristy Campbell, spokeswoman former Gov. Jeb Bush, Dec. 4, 2013

Interview, Brad Dayspring, spokesman National Republican Senatorial Committee, Dec. 4, 3013

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