The fastest-growing, and fastest-declining, jobs in the US

What are the fastest-growing — and fastest-declining — jobs in the United States?

According to federal data, there’s plenty of upside for solar panel installers, but times could be tough for parking attendants and watch repairers.

We looked at the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics projections, which are federal economists’ best guesses at which jobs will be expanding and contracting between 2018 and 2028. Several academic and industry economists say the BLS projections are the best data source available.

The aging of the Baby Boom generation is producing a need for workers in health care and long-term care. Roughly half of the 20 fastest-growing jobs fall into one of these two categories. 

"Growth in health care jobs is a safe bet since the aging population is a near-certainty," said Jed Kolko, the chief economist for the jobs site Indeed.com.

Renewable energy — notably solar and wind power — is also poised to expand significantly.

But as renewable energy jobs expand, jobs in coal mining will continue to decline. Coal mining jobs have declined by 71% from their 1985 peak.

Another trend from the 20 fastest-shrinking jobs: The march of technology continues. Jobs in legacy sectors — such as telephones, mail and non-digital photography — are all projected to shrink through 2028. And continuing automation in manufacturing is poised to decrease the number of workers in aircraft and vehicle assembly.

The projections show that there will be continued demand for internet and quantitative skills, in such sectors as cybersecurity, statistics and software development.

And climate change is expected to have an effect by increasing the demand for forest fire inspectors and prevention specialists.

Economists caution that percentage increases such as those on the two lists above don’t tell the whole story. Some of the jobs on these lists will see a large percentage increase from a small initial number. More modest increases (or decreases) in jobs that start with a lot of workers can make a bigger difference on the job pool as a whole.

BLS offers an additional statistic that addresses this question, tracking the largest projected increases in the number of jobs, rather than the highest percentage increases.

There is some overlap between these two lists, other jobs will see large numerical increases even though they don’t crack the list of percentage increases.

• Food service workers (including general workers, cooks, and first-line supervisors)

• Janitors

• Landscaping and groundskeepers

• Construction laborers

• Truck drivers

• Carpenters and electricians

• Market research analysts and marketing specialists

Also important for gauging the economic implications are the income prospects in the growing and shrinking sectors.

On the whole, the top 20 jobs for growth have a higher average wage ($61,818) than do the 20 jobs that are shrinking the fastest ($43,115).

That said, lower-paying medical jobs are mainstays of the "gaining" list, especially in health and personal care. Some of these jobs are paid even less than the average for shrinking jobs.

According to Indeed.com, middle-wage jobs are growing more slowly than either higher- or lower-wage jobs, and that jobs requiring higher and lower levels of education were growing faster than jobs for people with a high school degree only.

Indeed also found that BLS employment projections favor urban areas, with rural areas growing the most slowly and suburban areas in the middle.

A final caveat: Some occupations include a lot of older workers, many of whom would be expected to retire during the next five to 10 years, said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless. Taking these retiring workers into account — which the data above does not do — it’s possible that some shrinking industries could still end up hiring new workers, and that some growing industries may ultimately hire at an even faster clip than the basic projections indicate.