Ohio Senate primary to test Donald Trump’s sway with voters

Ohio has become an early and major test of former President Donald Trump’s ability to pluck a winner out of a crowded field. Of the five Republicans running to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman, four, including "Hillbilly Elegy" author and venture capitalist J. D. Vance, openly courted Trump’s endorsement.

A few weeks before the May 3 primary, Trump picked Vance, despite Vance’s harsh critiques of Trump in 2016. Vance has since renounced his past comments — such as calling Trump an "idiot" — and has embraced Trump’s brand of populism.

Trump’s decision disappointed three other leading candidates: Jane Timken, Josh Mandel and Mike Gibbons.

Timken, the former state party chairwoman, snagged Portman’s endorsement, but there’s no indication that it allowed her to break free of the pack. Portman, a key architect of the bipartisan infrastructure bill that broke a decade-long logjam in Congress, stands for a more traditional Republican spirit that University of Cincinnati political scientist David Niven said runs thin among GOP primary voters.

"The energy in the party is in anti-establishment anger just about everywhere," Niven said.

State Sen. Matt Dolan set himself apart from the other Republicans candidates, rejecting notions of widespread fraud in the 2020 election and calling the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol "an attack on American democracy."

Keeping Ohio in the Republican column is key to the party’s hopes to take back the Senate. The state offers an opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat, but that’s no easy task. Voters handed Trump an even larger margin of victory in 2020 than in 2016, and top election handicappers rate the Senate contest as "Lean Republican."

The dominant candidate in the Democratic primary is Rep. Tim Ryan, who faces a challenge from consumer protection lawyer Morgan Harper.

The four Trump-aligned candidates vary in how strenuously they push the factless assertion of massive fraud in the 2020 election. At a minimum, they all have said it was flawed. Gibbons and Mandel pushed the idea hardest, each earning a Pants on Fire rating for their claims. Gibbons said there were more votes than registered voters, while Mandel stated flat-out that the election was stolen from Trump.

Vance, who early on dismissed the need for U.S. involvement in Ukraine, got a Pants on Fire rating for saying President Joe Biden risked war with Russia because Vladimir Putin doesn’t "believe in transgender rights." Vance also said Biden’s "open border" policy meant "more Democrat voters pouring into this country." We rated that False. And Vance falsely said "Joe Biden uses the ATF to illegally track your gun transactions."

Timken blamed Biden for sending "prices skyrocketing." Biden’s American Rescue Plan added to inflation, but the economic shock waves from COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have contributed at least as much. We rated Timken’s claim Half True.

Gibbons and Mandel have taken aim at each other and Vance, making attacks with limited to no fealty to the facts.

Republicans

Josh Mandel: Campaign website

Biography: Mandel brings statewide name recognition, having twice won election for state treasurer. He also served two terms as a state representative. This is his second attempt at a U.S. Senate seat. In 2012, he ran unsuccessfully against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown. Over the years, Mandel has moved increasingly to the right and adopted more confrontational language.

Core policies: Mandel has put his allegiance to Trump at the center of his campaign. "Fighting for President Trump’s America First agenda," leads on his campaign’s issues page. He says the country should "immediately finish President Trump’s border wall," and has dubbed his bid as a "fight for faith and freedom."

Mandel highlights that he was the first statewide official to back a bill banning abortion after a heartbeat is detected, and touts his opposition to critical race theory in the classroom. (While some teachers have units on race, this theory isn’t taught in the classroom.)

He said at an October debate that he believes the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

Key backers: The conservative Super PACs USA Freedom Fund and Club for Growth Action. In October, the Club for Growth ran ads against competitor J.D. Vance, and in January, against Jane Timken. In both cases, the Club for Growth asserted that they failed to show true support for Trump.

Mike Gibbons: Campaign website

Biography:  A businessman and investment banker, Gibbons was Trump’s Ohio finance committee co-chair in 2016. Gibbons ran for the U.S. Senate in 2018, but lost the primary to Trump-backed candidate Rep. Jim Renacci, who in turn lost to Brown.

Core policies: Gibbons gives a strong nod to Trump, vowing to continue to "build the wall that was started under President Trump." Emphasizing his business background, Gibbons says he would close tax loopholes that benefit special interests and create a tax credit for each new job a company adds.

Gibbons says he would end late-term abortion and confirm "originalist justices to the Supreme Court who could overturn Roe v. Wade." Like Mandel, he touts his rejection of critical race theory.

In an ad, Gibbons attacked Vance and Timken for failing to fully back Trump, calling himself "Trump tough."

Key backers: Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul.

J.D. Vance: Campaign website

Biography: Vance first gained widespread attention as the author of the best-selling memoir "Hillbilly Elegy", and as a venture capitalist. In 2016, he opposed Trump, saying in an interview, that "I’m a Never-Trump guy." GOP opponents have highlighted that and other past criticisms of Trump in TV ads. Vance has since said he was wrong about Trump, and that he regrets his 2016 comments.

"I think he was a good president, I think he made a lot of good decisions for people, and I think he took a lot of flak," Vance told Fox News on July 5, 2021.

His website notes that he is "a fixture" on Fox News and Newsmax, favored media outlets of the GOP base.

Core policies: Vance leans heavily on themes of a hollowed-out working class, and casts them as part of a broader social struggle. 

"The Left has decided to wage a culture war against traditional values," Vance said. "They take hundreds of billions of American tax dollars and send it to universities that teach that America is an evil, racist nation, which is all critical race theory is."

Vance embraces Trump’s tariffs on China and would raise taxes on companies that send jobs overseas. "If these companies are going to wage war on America, it’s time America wages war on them," he said.

He would ban abortion (including for cases of rape or incest), and allow immigration based on work skills. Vance has spoken out against gun control, and has said, inaccurately, that the government is illegally tracking gun sales.

Key backers: Former President Donald Trump endorsed Vance. Vance once worked with and now benefits from billionaire and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel. Thiel put $10 million into a Super PAC to promote Vance. Thiel also brokered a meeting between Vance and Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., one of the most outspoken and combative figures in the House Republican Conference, has endorsed Vance.

Matt Dolan: Campaign website

Biography: Dolan is a state senator and chair of the powerful Senate Finance Committee. He has been an assistant state attorney general and a county prosecutor. After Dolan announced, Trump said, "I know of at least one person in the race who I won’t be endorsing."

On the anniversary of the Jan. 6 breach of the U.S. Capitol, Dolan called it "an attack on American democracy, our Constitution and the rule of law that must not be minimized, normalized or explained away." Dolan went on to chastise his primary opponents who "continue to say they would have objected to certifying the 2020 election."

Dolan asks voters to see the race as about "Ohio, and Ohio only," and highlights the practical benefits he has brought to Ohioans in his time at the state House. 

Core policies: Dolan emphasizes a traditional Republican platform of promoting growth through lower taxes and less regulation, coupled with good schools and worker training. The issues section of his website is more about what he has done than what he will do. He highlights the individual tax cuts that came in the most recent state budget, along with spending $95 million in workforce training funds over the past five years.

Dolan touts his votes against abortion, and in favor of gun rights, highlighting a law that privileges state gun regulations over local restrictions. He opposes immigration amnesty and talks about his work to increase funding for law enforcement.

Key backers: Dolan has yet to score a high-profile endorsement. He comes from a billionaire family and has put over $10 million of his own money into his campaign.

Jane Timken: Campaign website

Biography: Timken is a lawyer who spent years as a party activist and became state GOP party chair in 2017 while Trump was president. She is married to the former president of Ohio-based TimkenSteel, one of the nation’s largest steelmakers. On her website, she boasts that she "completely transformed the party into a well-oiled machine that won conservative victories and advanced an America First agenda at every level." 

Timken’s main political liability is her past praise for fellow Ohio Republican Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, who voted to impeach Trump for the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol and who later announced that he’d be retiring. 

When Timken announced her Senate run two weeks later, she criticized Gonzalez for his vote, but her opponents have used her previous words against her. 

Core policies: Timken supported Trump and his policies when he was president, and her campaign features Trump at a number of turns.

"I will fight to finish President Trump’s wall," Timken said. "I will re-institute the Remain in Mexico policy, deport criminal illegal aliens, vote against amnesty, and end catch and release."

She promised to oppose tax increases and "will fight to return to the historic Trump-era tax cuts that unleashed America’s economic engine." 

Timken said the Ohio election, which Trump won, was secure, but "there was unquestionably voter fraud in the 2020 election."

Key backers: Timken received the coveted endorsement of retiring Sen. Portman. She also has the backing of former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway.

Democrats

Tim Ryan: Campaign website

Biography: Ryan has represented much of the industrial cities of Akron, Warren and Youngstown in Congress since 2003. In 2016, he launched an unsuccessful bid to unseat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He briefly ran for president in 2020. He is a member of the House Appropriations committee.

Core policies: Ryan has opposed free-trade agreements that other Democrats have supported. On his website, he talks about opposing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and his efforts to renegotiate NAFTA before Trump delivered a new agreement.

He touts his work with Portman and Brown (one of the few Ohio Democrats to win statewide in recent years) to include buy-American provisions into the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Ryan links Ohio-based manufacturing to climate change goals, seeking to "supply the world with American-made wind turbines, solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, and everything else we’ll need to power the clean energy economy."

He supports a $15 minimum wage, stronger legal protections for workers who want to join unions, and an expansion of affordable child care. On health care, he supports incentives to attract providers to rural areas, allowing Medicare to negotiate on prescription drug prices, and opening the program to people as young as 50 if they want to buy in.

Key backers: Ryan enjoys broad union support and from national Democrats. The Ohio State Democratic Party endorsed him. He has been an effective fundraiser, bringing in $4.1 million in the first quarter of 2022.

Morgan Harper: Campaign website

Biography: Harper has not held elected office, but as a consumer protection lawyer, she served as a senior adviser at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau during the Obama administration. During the pandemic, she co-founded Columbus Stand Up, a community effort to distribute masks, get people to vaccination sites and drive voters to the polls in the 2020 election. Harper challenged Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty in a special election primary in 2020 and lost by about 35 points.

Core policies: Harper would close tax loopholes, avoid foreign wars and prioritize federal spending to create jobs. She would "jump start" clean energy manufacturing, retrofit homes for energy efficiency, and invest in the charging stations and power grid to support wide use of electric vehicles.

Harper backs Medicare for All and universal free community college and trade schools. On crime, she would aim to get guns out of the hands of the mentally ill, but also address what she calls the "root cause" of violence, with investments in schools, mental health, and job opportunities.

Harper would vote to pass the voting rights legislation that failed in the Senate. She is firmly pro-abortion rights.

Key backers: Harper has not secured major endorsements in her 2022 race. In her 2020 primary race, Harper was backed by two progressive groups, Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party.

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