Would Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs hit typical families by $4,000, as Kamala Harris said?

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris said one of former President Donald Trump’s policy proposals — higher tariffs on goods imported into the United States — could harm everyday consumers. 

During her Aug. 22 acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris said Trump "doesn’t actually fight for the middle class. … Instead, he fights for himself and his billionaire friends."

Even as Trump proposes tax cuts that would benefit wealthier Americans, Harris said, he "intends to enact what, in effect, is a national sales tax — call it a Trump tax — that would raise prices on middle-class families by almost $4,000 a year."

The Harris campaign confirmed to PolitiFact that Harris was referring to Trump’s tariff proposals when she mentioned "a national sales tax."

Although tariffs are levied separately from taxes, a majority of economists say much of their impact is passed along to consumers. This makes them analogous to a tax. But because a minority of consumer spending goes toward imports, the tariffs would not hit all purchases equally.

There’s wide agreement that the tariff would affect consumers. "Trump's proposal would be very harmful to household budgets," said Daniel Mitchell, an independent libertarian economist.

However, the specific amount of the impact varies by study, and Harris’ figure of "almost $4,000" is on the high end of independent estimates.

As president, Trump imposed a variety of tariffs, some of which his successor, President Joe Biden, kept in place. 

Trump has pledged a more expansive tariff strategy during his 2024 campaign. Across-the-board tariffs, rather than ones targeted on specific products or industries, drive his approach.

Trump has proposed a 10% tariff (and at least once said up to 20%) on all nondomestic goods sold in the U.S., along with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. 

Economists suspect that countries facing new or expanded tariffs under Trump would impose retaliatory tariffs of their own on U.S. goods sold in their countries. For instance, when Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in 2018, six trading partners imposed retaliatory tariffs: Canada, China, the European Union, India, Mexico and Turkey.

Previously, a Republican National Committee spokesperson pointed PolitiFact to a study by Coalition for a Prosperous America, a group of manufacturers and labor unions that generally supports higher tariffs. The study says a 10% tariff "would stimulate domestic production and raise economic growth to produce a 5.7% increase in real income for the average American household."

The proposed tariff policy changes’ possible effect on middle-income consumers varies widely depending on the study. (It would also vary based on a family’s economic circumstances.)

• The American Action Forum, a center-right think tank, has projected annual additional costs per household of $1,700 to $2,350 for the 10% tariff and an additional $1,950 if the 60% tariff on China is added. That would equal $3,650 to $4,300 for both tariffs, which aligns with Harris’ statement.

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  Donald Trump

  stated on October 15, 2024 in a rally in Atlanta

  Vice President Kamala Harris' plan “will raise taxes for the typical American family by an estimated $3,000."

  

• The Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, projected that the 10% and 60% tariffs would collectively lower average after-tax incomes of U.S. households by about $1,800. That’s 55% less than what Harris said.

• The liberal group Center for American Progress Action came up with a $3,900 figure, which is close to what Harris said. However, this estimate is based on a 20% tariff, which is on the high end of what Trump said Aug. 14 in Asheville, North Carolina — that he was considering a "10 and 20 percent" across-the-board tariff, rather than 10%.

• The Peterson Institute of International Economics, another Washington, D.C.-based think tank, initially projected that the 10% and 60% tariffs would cost a middle-income household about $1,700 extra each year. They recalculated the data for the 20% tariff proposal and found the per-household hit at $2,600 a year. That was still below what Harris said.

Mitchell said consumers may be able to avoid some of the tariffs’ hit by buying fewer imports. "But since American producers will raise prices to take advantage of diminished competition, consumers will still be paying more," he said.

Harris said Trump "intends to enact what, in effect, is a national sales tax — call it a Trump tax — that would raise prices on middle-class families by almost $4,000 a year."

Trump has repeatedly proposed wide-ranging tariffs on foreign goods. Although tariffs are imposed separately from the tax system, consumers would feel their impact much the same way as taxes.

However, the specific dollar impact on consumers varies. Two estimates we found generally support Harris’ $4,000 figure; two show a smaller, though still significant, impact.

We rate the statement Half True.