Job growth on Hochul’s watch helped by pandemic recovery

Gov. Hochul returned to her Buffalo roots when she recently cited steady job growth on her watch.

"I grew up in a tough neighborhood," Hochul told business leaders at an event hosted by the Partnership for New York City and Crain’s New York Business. "You know, I've come from the streets of Buffalo and Lackawanna Steel Plant, and Dad worked in a steel plant. My parents lived in a trailer park. So, I've seen how tough it is out there. I know what people are going through, because people that my parents lived next door to still live in that same trailer park years later, the families. People have not escaped, and my job is to help them by creating more jobs with all of you. We've created 732,000 jobs since I've been governor."

Is Hochul right? Have 732,000 jobs have been created since she became governor in late summer 2021?

Hochul’s staff told us they determined that 732,000 new jobs have been created by comparing private sector job data, which is seasonally adjusted, from August 2021, the month that Hochul was sworn in, with data from July 2024. In August 2021, there were 7,669,100 private sector jobs in New York state. In July 2024, there were 8,401,500 jobs. That's a difference of 732,400 jobs. These figures are available from the state Labor Department and are collected through a survey of payrolls, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Hochul’s staff told PolitiFact the July data she relied upon to make her claim was "current at the time of the event." But Hochul spoke Nov. 19, and datasets from August, September and October were available. When asked about the newer data, the governor’s staff said that her figure represents a picture of the governor’s first full three years in office.

Seasonally adjusted data shows that private sector jobs have fallen consistently, if modestly, since July. In August, the number of jobs fell by 8,100 from July. In September, the number of jobs fell again by 2,900. And in October, they fell by 800. The October data was released five days before Hochul’s statement.

Comparing the data from the month when she took office, August 2021, with the most recent data available, preliminary data from October 2024, when private sector jobs totaled 8,391,200, the result is an increase of 722,100 jobs, or nearly 10,000 fewer than she claimed.

Although that is a lower figure, the difference represents 0.1% of the state’s private sector employment. That could be covered by the margin of error in the data.

The survey data for the Current Employment Statistics program counts people who are employed during any part of their pay period on the 12th of every month, and this data set reflects the most up-to-date information when Hochul took office Aug. 24, 2021. The data does not include independent contractors.

Another way to look at the job figures is to take all of the nonfarm jobs, not just private sector jobs. (Farm jobs are not counted in this data set because their numbers can be volatile, depending on the weather and other factors.) From August 2021 to October 2024, nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted, increased by 784,500. (In October there were 9,871,100 jobs and in August 2021 there were 9,086,600.)

Seasonally adjusted data can typically provide a better comparison between different months from different years, said Bruce Bergman, an economist with Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A governor has debatable influence over the economy and job creation, especially after a global pandemic. Hochul took office as New York and the nation were recovering from deep job losses because of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and growth was trending upward.

"You’ll see that big upswing in the data," said Scott Laing, clinical assistant professor of finance at the School of Management at the University at Buffalo. The month-to-month changes are flatter now, he said.

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New York ranks 11th among states in job growth from August 2021 to September 2024, according to Laing’s analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Nevada and Texas topped the list.

Hochul prefaced her remarks by talking about a troubled economy in Western New York, but the recovery between July 2019 and July 2024 happened downstate, according to an analysis of nonseasonally adjusted data by E.J. McMahon, an adjunct fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a longtime conservative observer of state economics.

"All of the state’s job recovery, and then some, has been concentrated in New York City," McMahon said. "And upstate, as of July, still had not recovered to its July 2019 level." 

Hochul ignored the latest monthly jobs reports when she said 732,000 jobs had been created during her administration. Accounting for the three more recent reports shows a slightly smaller increase of 722,000 jobs.

But that difference is minimal given the total number of private sector jobs, and falls within the data’s margin of error.

When counting all nonfarm jobs — not just private sector jobs — the job growth exceeded her statement, with 784,500 new jobs between August 2021 and October 2024.

The governor's claim about job growth is mostly accurate. We rate it Mostly True.