Is Kamala Harris right about reducing 'the flow of fentanyl by half'?

In the weeks leading up to the presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris touted to voters the Biden-Harris administration’s actions to stop fentanyl from entering the U.S. Fentanyl is a potent synthetic opioid and the primary driver of overdose deaths in the U.S., according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. 

During Harris’ Oct. 7 interview on CBS News’ "60 Minutes," correspondent Bill Whitaker asked her about the immigration policies of President Joe Biden’s administration. Illegal immigration "quadrupled under your watch," he said. Harris rebutted Whitaker’s assertion, saying illegal immigration has dropped. 

"Because of what we have done, we have cut the flow of illegal immigration by half. We have cut the flow of fentanyl by half," Harris said.

She said something similar Oct. 8 on ABC’s "The View".

"We have seen … the intake of fentanyl reduced by half," she said.

Harris' presidential campaign did not provide evidence backing the claim. Drug experts said there’s no way to know with certainty whether Harris’ claim is true. 

Federal drug seizure data shows how much fentanyl Customs and Border Protection seized (27,000 pounds in fiscal year 2023, 11,200 pounds in 2021). But it does not show how much fentanyl came into the U.S. 

"No one knows how much the flow of fentanyl has been cut because we don’t know how much has been coming in," Joseph Palamar, a New York University associate professor who studies drug use, drug policy and epidemiology, said.

We’ve examined whether more drug seizures mean better interdiction or more drugs on the streets. The answer? Hard to tell, given insufficient data.

The seizure data is interpreted differently by people who want to tout success and by people who want to outline failure. Some cite a rise in drug seizures as a sign of improved interdiction, others say that same number is evidence that more drugs are getting into the country.

"No change or trend in seizures permits a definitive statement about what is happening to quantities that arrive," Jonathan Caulkins, a Carnegie Mellon University drug policy researcher said.

Here’s what drug experts told us about what we can and can’t infer from the data.

Most illicit fentanyl in the U.S. comes from Mexico made with chemicals from Chinese labs. It enters the U.S. mainly through the southern border at official ports of entry, and it’s smuggled in mostly by U.S. citizens. 

Fentanyl seizures have been rising for the past decade. 

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Donald Trump

stated on September 29, 2024 in a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania

Vice President Kamala Harris “even wants to legalize fentanyl.”

Fiscal years start in October and end in September. In fiscal year 2015, border officials seized 70 pounds of fentanyl. In 2016, former President Barack Obama’s last year in office, CBP seized 701 pounds. During former President Donald Trump’s first three years, officials seized an average 2,400 pounds a year; in fiscal year 2020, they seized about 4,800 pounds.

Under Biden’s administration, in fiscal year 2021, officials seized 11,200 pounds; that increased to 27,000 pounds in 2023. As of August, border officials had seized 19,700 pounds of fentanyl in fiscal year 2024.

To know how much fentanyl is in the U.S., experts said we need to know how much fentanyl is being produced, how much is being sent here and how much is seized.

"We don’t have data on the total amount of fentanyl being produced and trafficked," said David Luckey, a senior international and defense researcher at Rand Corp., a global policy think tank.

The only complete, available data shows how much fentanyl is seized at the border. Data on fentanyl seizures inside the U.S. is incomplete, Luckey said. 

That the U.S. seizing more fentanyl could mean more of the drug is coming into the U.S., and that's why more is being seized. But it also could mean we're interdicting more and less is coming in, he said. 

Caulkins said, "We expect seizures to go up when shipments go up and to go down when shipments go down. So generally speaking, an increase in seizures is usually interpreted as circumstantial evidence that things are getting worse not better."

An Oct. 1 NPR article cited drug researchers saying that there is anecdotal evidence that the fentanyl supply in the U.S. may be decreasing in certain parts of the country. However, other experts cautioned that it’s unclear whether that trend will continue.

Opioid overdose deaths also dropped in the U.S. in 2023, a disruption from a years-long upward trend. However, the overall death toll remains higher than just a few years ago, according to KFF. It’s too soon to predict whether the downward trend will continue.

But neither data point proves with certainty that the rise in seizures is evidence that fentanyl in the U.S. has been cut in half.

Harris said "We have cut the flow of fentanyl by half."

Federal data shows that fentanyl seizures have more than doubled during the Biden-Harris administration. But that doesn’t mean the amount of fentanyl entering the U.S. has been cut in half. Data to prove that statement is unavailable.

Fentanyl seizure data tells us only how much fentanyl was stopped from entering the U.S. But the data doesn’t tell us how much fentanyl entered. 

One drug expert said the uptick in fentanyl seizures could mean either that more is coming in or that less is coming in. Another drug policy expert said there is no way to know with certainty what a rise in seizures mean; generally it is interpreted to mean that more fentanyl is entering the U.S.

At PolitiFact, the burden of proof is on the speaker. Given the absence of data supporting Harris' claim, we rate it False.