Donald Trump says Kamala Harris’ plan would hike taxes on “the typical American family.” It doesn’t.

During a rally Oct. 15 in Atlanta, former President Donald Trump said his 2024 opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, would raise taxes on ordinary Americans.

Harris' "plan will raise taxes for the typical American family by an estimated $3,000," Trump said.

He’s wrong. 

Producing a tax hit of close to $3,000 for the typical family would require eliminating the entire tax law Trump signed in 2017 — something Harris has repeatedly said she wouldn’t do. Instead, Harris has said she would only seek to end the law’s provisions that affect households with incomes over $400,000.

In 2017, Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which lowered taxes for all income groups, at least initially; wealthier taxpayers benefited disproportionately. The law is set to expire Dec. 31,  2025. 

Trump has said he would fully extend the law. Harris has said she would extend only the tax provisions affecting households with incomes up to $400,000. This continues a policy promise of President Joe Biden. 

Under Harris’ plan, the top marginal tax rate for the highest income brackets would rise to 39.6% for incomes above $400,000 for single filers and $450,000 for joint filers. Harris would also enact a minimum tax for billionaires and increase the tax rate on long-term capital gains to 28% for taxpayers earning at least $1 million a year.

At the same time, Harris would expand the existing child tax credit from $2,000 to $3,000, or $3,600 for children younger than 6. The credit would grow to $6,000 for families with newborns. She would also eliminate taxes on tips, something Trump has also pledged to do.

The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn-Wharton Business Model projected the effects of both candidates’ tax plans on a spectrum of income levels in 2026 and 2034.

For the bottom one-fifth of earners, Harris’ plan would increase after-tax income by 18% — tax specialists’ wonky phrasing for receiving an 18% tax cut. The second-lowest income group would see a cut of 4.8%, the middle a cut of 2.7%, and the second-highest group a cut of 2.1%. The top 5% of earners would see after-tax incomes decline, meaning they’d see a tax hike. The changes in after-tax income vary somewhat by 2034, but the broad patterns hold.

The Penn-Wharton analysis found that for the bottom 60% of the income spectrum, Harris’ tax cuts would be larger than Trump’s. On average, none of these groups would see tax increases.

Other groups have found similar results.

The Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center looked at Biden’s tax proposals, which are broadly similar to Harris’, in 2023. The center found that the bottom 40% — people with incomes up to $60,000 — would expect tax cuts, while the middle one-fifth, with incomes from $60,000 to $107,000 — would see no net change in their taxes.

The second-highest fifth of earners — from $107,000 to $195,000 — would see a tax increase, but it would amount to $470, which is well below the $3,000 hit Trump cited.

An analysis by the Tax Foundation, a center-right think tank, was broadly similar. In 2025, the foundation projects a tax cut for the bottom three-fifths of the income distribution, ranging from a 16.5% cut for the bottom one-fifth to a 0.5% cut for the middle fifth. 

So, under Harris’ proposal, a "typical American family" would see a tax cut, not a $3,000 tax hike.

Featured Fact-check

Ruben Gallego

stated on October 9, 2024 in a debate

Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake “was against” the child tax credit expansion “when the bill was on the floor.”

Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, said Trump was the president who signed the 2017 tax law in the first place and that Harris, as a senator, voted against it, with other Democrats.

But that doesn’t mean Harris wants to fully eliminate the bill today.

As our colleagues at FactCheck.org have reported, a Trump campaign ad said, "Kamala’s plan will raise families’ taxes by nearly $2,600 a year," and cited a Tax Foundation report from May 7, 2024.

But the ad twists that $2,600 reference. The Tax Foundation article analyzed the impact if the 2017 law were to expire at the end of 2025, as it will if it isn’t extended. The national average hit to taxpayers would be about $2,800, with significant state-by-state variation.

But since Harris says she isn’t proposing to end the whole bill — only some of its provisions for the highest-income taxpayers — the $2,800 figure isn’t relevant.

Trump said Harris' "plan will raise taxes for the typical American family by an estimated $3,000."

He’s wrong. One independent analysis found that if Harris were to allow the 2017 Trump-enacted tax law to expire in its entirety, the average hit to taxpayers would be about $2,800. But that figure isn’t relevant to Harris, because she has promised to renew most of the law, minus some provisions affecting incomes above $400,000.

Three independent analyses of Harris’ tax proposals have found that the bottom 60% of earners, including incomes up to about $107,000, would see tax cuts under her plan, not tax hikes. And the tax increases for the incomes between $107,000 and $195,000 would be well below $3,000.

We rate the statement False.