Vance cherry-picks data to claim 81% murder spike amid Haitian migrant influx in Springfield, Ohio

As he repeated unsubstantiated claims about Haitian immigrants, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, linked the recent immigration uptick in Springfield — an Ohio city with about 58,000 people as of the 2020 census — to rising murders. 

"The local services are completely overwhelmed," Vance said Sept. 15 on CNN’s "State of the Union," adding that people in Springfield have struggled to afford housing. "Homelessness has gone up. Murders are up by 81% because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community." 

Vance, former President Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate, was one of the first conservative politicians to elevate the falsehoods that Haitian migrants have eaten pets. Local and state leaders have rebutted such claims and said the rumors distract from genuine housing, schooling and health care constraints the city has faced as its immigrant population increased.

One thing they haven’t talked about is rising murder. In fact, the city’s immigration FAQ webpage said Haitian migrants are more likely to be the victims of crimes than perpetrators, citing Clark County jail data.

A Trump-Vance campaign spokesperson pointed us to data showing that from 2021 to 2023, murders in Springfield rose from five to nine. That’s how Vance gets an 80% increase. 

Case closed? No. 

Looking further back, the number of homicides in Springfield fluctuated without a clear trend from 2013 to 2022. In 2018, for example, when there were fewer migrants and Trump was president, there were 13 homicides.

A criminal justice expert cautioned against relying on annual changes in Springfield to draw conclusions about crime. 

"With less than one homicide per month, statistical tests on annual changes are not possible. Homicides are too much of a rare event to determine whether small changes are statistically meaningful," said John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the nonpartisan research group NORC at the University of Chicago. 

Springfield has attracted Haitian migrants because of its relatively low cost of living and the job opportunities that city leadership and its chamber of commerce created, according to news reports. 

Haitian migrants began moving to Springfield around 2017, and the number increased around 2020 and 2021, The Guardian, The New York Times and NPR reported. The city of Springfield’s website estimates there are about 12,000 to 15,000 immigrants in Clark County, Ohio, where Springfield is located. Of that total, about 10,000 to 12,000 are Haitian, according to Chris Cook, health commissioner for the Clark County Combined Health District. 

Vance has not demonstrated how Haitians are connected to murders, which have fluctuated over the last decade. Clark County Prosecutor Daniel Driscoll, a Republican, told CNN that he’d seen no murders where Haitians were perpetrators or victims in his 21 years in office.

Vance’s murder statistic comes from the Ohio Incident Based Reporting System, a state-run program for Ohio law enforcement agencies to voluntarily submit crime data. Springfield police started reporting its figures in 2021. 

We wanted a longer view, so we looked up homicide data reported by the Springfield police department to the FBI over a 10-year period, starting in 2013. The latest data available is for 2022. (The FBI defines "homicide" as "the killing of one human being by another," which differs slightly from the first dataset’s definition of "murder" for a killing that was "willful.")

The number of homicides reached a decade-high of 13 homicides in 2018. In 2019, it dropped to a low of two. In 2020, there were eight homicides.

In February 2021, then-Springfield Police Chief Lee Graf told the Springfield News-Sun that homicides in Springfield are often premeditated or crimes of passion with personal motives and rarely involve a random victim.

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Says Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., “is trying to change the outcome of the election by counting NON-CITIZEN votes.”

The Springfield police department did not reply to PolitiFact’s query for information about murder data.

Local news outlets in Springfield reported data that’s different from what the Ohio reporting system shows, and counts vary among outlets. For example, the Springfield News-Sun reported that there were nine homicides in 2021; WHIO-TV said there were 12 homicides in 2021. 

The Springfield News-Sun reported at least nine homicides in 2023, as of Nov. 29. Based on that figure, Springfield had no change from 2021 to 2023.

Vance said, "Murders are up by 81%" in Springfield. 

Data reported to the Ohio Incident Based Reporting System showed that from 2021 to 2023, murders in Springfield rose from five to nine — an 80% increase. 

Longer-term data, from 2013 to 2022, reported by the Springfield police to the FBI, shows that the number of homicides has fluctuated in Springfield without a clear trend. Data reported by a local news outlet also doesn’t show a change in homicides from 2021 to 2023.

Vance offered a cherry-picked statistic as he and Trump criticized the effects of immigration into Springfield. But the city said Haitian migrants are likelier to be the victims of crimes than the perpetrators.

The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that give a different impression. We rate it Mostly False. 

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