Has consumer confidence fallen, as Sen. Cory Booker said? Two key surveys say yes

One of many things Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., said during his record-breaking, 25-hour-plus Senate floor speech: consumers are losing confidence in the U.S. economy.

Booker said April 1, "The consumer confidence in this country has gone way down. If you ask the question, are you better off than you were 71 days ago, not many Americans would say … that they’re better off. Their costs are higher. Their groceries are higher. They’re soon to see everything from car prices to food go higher."

Measures of consumer confidence have historically carried weight both on private-sector business investment decisions and policymaking by elected officials.

On April 2, after Booker’s speech, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs that could affect future consumer confidence levels. For now, though, the latest data available is from February and March.

The two main consumer confidence surveys — the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index — support Booker’s statement. Booker’s office confirmed to PolitiFact that those surveys were what the senator referenced.

To some extent, "way down" is in the eye of the beholder. But compared to recent presidents at the start of their terms, the drop under Trump is unusually large.

"It's a serious fall," said Dean Baker, an economist and cofounder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. 

The Conference Board, a business research group, has produced its Consumer Confidence Index for decades. It gauges consumers’ feelings about topics such as current and future labor market conditions, current and future business conditions and future income expectations.

In November 2024, the month Trump was reelected, the index stood at 111.7. Since then, it has fallen every month, with the March measurement at 92.9, a 17% decline since November.

The last time the index was below 92.9 was in the first month of Joe Biden’s presidency, January 2021, when it was 87.1. That was during the coronavirus pandemic, and beginning with February 2021, the metric never fell below 92.9 for the remainder of Biden’s term.

A related Conference Board metric known as the Expectations Index — which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — dropped in March to its lowest level in 12 years and below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead, the group said in its news release on the monthly numbers.

How does Trump compare with his recent White House predecessors? 

Since 2001, two presidents (Trump in his first term, and Biden) saw the Conference Board index rise during the same timeframe we tracked for Trump’s current term — from the November before they took office to March of their first term.

Two other presidents saw it fall: George W. Bush, by 9%, and Obama, by 30%. Obama took office in 2009 during the Great Recession, at a historic low point for the index, meaning a modest drop in points produced a large percentage decline.

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During President Joe Biden’s four years in office, “31% of U.S. job growth” came from public-sector jobs.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which has also been tabulated for decades, rose from November to December 2024, then fell in January and February. From December 2024 to February, it declined nearly 13%. February’s level was lower than at any point in 2024. 

"The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth," survey director Joanne Hsu wrote in the statistical release.

This decline was the largest among presidents since 2001.

Since 2001, three presidents (Obama, Trump in his first term and Biden) saw the University of Michigan index rise during the same timeframe we tracked for Trump’s current term — from the November before they took office to February of their first term.

The only president in that timeframe to see a decline in the index, Bush, saw a 15% reduction, which was smaller than Trump’s reduction in his current term. For Bush, this period came during the lead-up to a recession, which officially began in March 2001. 

Booker said, "The consumer confidence in this country has gone way down."

This aligns with the two major consumer confidence surveys. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has fallen by 17% since November 2024, while the University of Michigan Consider Sentiment Index has fallen nearly 13% since December 2024.

With one exception, for Obama during the Great Recession, these declines are greater than for any president since 2001 during similar timeframes in their presidencies.

We rate the statement True.