President Barack Obama's legacy regulation to curb carbon emissions and transition to a clean energy economy is in legal limbo.
Obama and the Environmental Protection Agency announced the final version of Clean Power Plan on Aug. 3, 2015.
It has been hailed as a historic achievement, but it is now up to the courts to decide if it will have staying power.
Enforcement could reduce carbon emissions from the power sector by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.
Under the Clean Power Plan, the EPA establishes emissions goals for each state and the power sector overall, which accounts for nearly 40 percent of energy usage and 40 percent of carbon emissions in the country.
States then create their own plans for the power plants within their borders. They can implement programs like emissions trading to meet their targets and/or adopt to renewable sources like wind, solar and hydropower.
By providing utilities with the incentive to shift to clean energy, which have no carbon emissions, the rule will result in renewables making up 21 percent of power generation by 2030, up from 12 percent in 2012, the EPA estimates. BY 2040, that percentage will increase to 27 percent, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
That's short of Obama's ambitious 80 percent goal, but it still almost doubles electricity generation from renewables by 2012 levels.
Implementation of the Clean Power Plan, however, has been halted. A coalition of 27 states, led by West Virginia and Texas, and various businesses sued to block the rule. On Feb. 9, 2016, the Supreme Court ruled to stay the rule, pending a final ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals.
Some states, however, moved forward with the compliance process. The National Conference of State Legislatures estimated that 32 state legislatures were considering bills or resolutions on the Clean Power Plan, as of April 18, 2016. Three states — Kansas, West Virginia and Wyoming — had enacted bills to begin creating plans.
Several states including Arkansas and Michigan have already met or are on track to meet their compliance goals thanks to declining coal use, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.
Without the Clean Power Plan, renewables are expected to make up about 18 percent of power generation by 2040, a much less significant increase from 2012 levels and a fourth of Obama's stated target.
Steve Clemmer, the director of energy research and analysis at the Union of Concerned Scientists, pointed out that federal tax credits for renewables also play a role in moving towards a clean energy economy.
By the union's analysis, the rule and the credits together would move renewables, not counting hydropower, to account for 21.5 percent of electricity generation by 2030.
These policies "take you into the direction" of Obama's promise but "they might not get you to these levels," Clemmer said, adding that regardless of the final legal outcome for the Clean Power Plan, "The fundamental economics of renewable energy technologies isn't going to change."
Given that the Clean Power Plan doesn't fully meet Obama's stated renewable target and its fate is currently unknown, we rate this promise Compromise.