While Gov. Scott Walker's campaign promise that Wisconsin would create 250,000 private-sector jobs in his four-term term seems as if it will be difficult to achieve, he's in better shape on his lesser-followed vow of 10,000 new businesses on his watch.
The latest report from the state's Department of Financial Institutions says the state had a total of 375,959 businesses as of the end of August 2013.
That's an increase of 11,590 from the 364,369 businesses when the Walker took office.
Walker highlighted the report in a Sept. 25, 2013 news release and has discussed the figure at various events, including an Oct. 2, 2013 appearance before the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce.
The trend in business formations is not a key economic indicator, because it reflects the number of corporations and partnerships registered at a point in time regardless of whether they employ anyone or have generated any income.
But the DFI numbers have some value as a signal of business activity.
"In general I do attach some value to the fact that that number is either rising or falling, as a good general indicator," said David J. Ward, CEO of NorthStar Consulting Group, a private economic consulting and research firm in Madison.
In this case, we have the data through August 2013 confirming that, after a bumpy first year or so, business formations under Walker have risen past the 10,000 mark.
That represents a 3.2 percent increase over 32 months.
The existing business total is a net figure that factors in both newly formed entities and those that have dissolved.
The DFI figure is volatile.
When we first checked it, 16 months into Walker's term, we found a loss of 4,338 business entities during his time.
More recently, using data through June 2013, we found the trend had turned around. At that time, on a net basis the state had 7,557 more businesses than on Dec. 31, 2010, just before Walker took office.
Examining the data through August 2013, we see that by far the biggest jump compared to 2010 came in domestic limited liability companies (LLCs), which make up 60 percent of existing business entities in the state. Domestic business corporations, by contrast, number 10,000 fewer now than when Walker took office.
Experts caution that the addition of business entities doesn't necessarily translate to new jobs, especially in the case of LLCs. As we have noted before, many limited liability companies are formed for tax or liability reasons, but don't necessarily employ anyone.
For example: Owners of residential or commercial real estate typically set up LLCs for each property or group of properties, Joseph W. Boucher, a Madison attorney who led the drafting of Wisconsin's LLC law, told us last year.
Tom Still, president of the Wisconsin Technology Council, said that LLCs are a preferred business form in the tech sector, but that a significant number of LLCs in other sectors are not active employers.
It's impossible to say, without contacting each filer, how many are passive and how many are active.
Both Ward and Still told us there is no other up-to-date data set available to document business creations.
They noted, though, that federal employment surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics count the number of business "establishments" in Wisconsin every quarter.
This is a closely related statistic, but "establishments" in the federal parlance are not single businesses. One company may consist of multiple establishments, such as stores, factories, mines, farms, etc.
Wisconsin had 4,024 more such "establishments" in the first quarter of 2013 than in the last quarter of 2010, before Walker took office, federal data shows. There is a lag in that data collection so we do not have current figures.
That increase amounts to 2.7 percent.
Let's return to the business registration figures that Walker cites.
The uptick in number of business entities has been notable this year.
For instance, there were 4,033 more businesses at the end of August 2013 compared with two months earlier, at the end of June. The Department of Financial Institutions reports show that 3,419 of that increase -- 85% -- were limited liability corporations.
In that same time period, the state added an estimated 7,200 private sector jobs, according to the state Department of Workforce Development. That put the the total number of private-sector jobs created since Walker took office at 89,882. By our measure that puts him about a third of the way to meeting the 250,000 jobs promise.
While the number for business growth has topped 10,000, we are taking a cautious approach.
Earlier this year we noted a wide swing to the positive in the number of businesses, after an initial negative start. And as we prepared this item, the newly released September 2013 data showed a drop of 600 from the August numbers the governor had touted.
With more than a year to the 2014 election, there could be more swings. We'll keep an eye on it, but we'll also keep this one at In the Works.