Abdul El-Sayed says AIPAC funded poll, but doesn’t provide evidence

In Michigan, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed sought to discredit a recent poll, saying it was funded by the pro-Israel group AIPAC.

El-Sayed, a self-described progressive who has criticized the Democratic Party’s leadership, is running against U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, a moderate Democrat backed by outgoing Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. The winner of the Aug. 4 primary will take on Republican Mike Rogers in November.

A poll by the Democratic research firm Tavern Research, conducted July 6-7, found Stevens ahead by 1 percentage point in a head-to-head matchup with El-Sayed. The margin of error was 2.5 percentage points, meaning the results are essentially a statistical tie.

In a July 8 interview on MSNOW, El-Sayed cast doubt on the legitimacy of the Tavern Research poll.

“That poll seems to be funded by AIPAC,” he said, referring to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which advocates for U.S. policies that it says will strengthen Israeli relations.

We found no public information connecting AIPAC to the July 8 poll. AIPAC and its super PAC, United Democracy Project, won’t report full July expenses until Aug. 20, but there’s no evidence that it paid for the poll. 

Tavern Research told PolitiFact it self-funded the poll. Nothing in the published results or news reporting about the poll said that AIPAC had funded it.

“We are doing polls on our own dime to prove that we have elite accuracy,” Tavern Research CEO Matt Lackey said.

El-Sayed’s campaign did not respond to PolitiFact’s request for evidence that AIPAC paid for the poll. In a July 16 campaign press release, it included the poll in a three-poll favorability comparison with Stevens; it made no mention of AIPAC.

AIPAC and United Democracy Project didn’t answer PolitiFact’s request for comment either.

AIPAC has become a polarizing force in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. The committee and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million in pro-Stevens and anti-El-Sayed advertising so far, The Associated Press reported, calling it the largest AIPAC investment ever in a single race. 

El-Sayed is critical of Israel’s government and military actions, describing the Gaza war as a “genocide” and calling for the U.S. to cut off Israel military aid. Stevens has said she supports Israel’s right to exist and called for a two-state solution, while criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 

No record of AIPAC funding Tavern Research poll

Tavern Research’s poll was conducted online and involved 2,211 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters. In a question posing a one-on-one matchup between El-Sayed and Stevens, 42% of respondents said they’d vote for Stevens, while 41% said they’d support El-Sayed. Another 18% were unsure. 

Subsequent polls have contradicted one another and shown wider margins between the candidates. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll from July 8-11 found Stevens up by 7 points, while two polls from mid-July, both commissioned by pro-El-Sayed groups, said he was leading by double-digits. 

Politico Playbook published the Tavern poll results July 8, but both Tavern Research and Politico told PolitiFact that Politico neither commissioned nor paid for the survey. In the past, when Tavern research has conducted commissioned polls, it disclosed who commissioned the poll in memos on its website. Tavern’s website has no disclosure involving the Michigan primary poll. And Politico’s published results and reporting on the poll list no outside commissioner.

United Democracy Project, the super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, commissions polling across the country. It has spent more than $1 million on polling during this election cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records through the end of June. Frequent vendors include Global Strategy Group, Hart Research Associates and Impact Research. But FEC records so far don’t show any payments to Tavern Research by the super PAC.

Our ruling

El-Sayed said that a poll that showed Stevens with a slight lead in early July “seems to be funded by AIPAC.” 

No public records or reporting exist connecting AIPAC to the poll. The research firm behind the poll, Tavern Research, said it was independently funded and conducted. El-Sayed’s campaign provided no information to back up his statement.

Finding no evidence to support this statement, we rate it False.